Even if Oklahoma City shows dramatic improvement, the No. 8 seed in the West has averaged 45.4 wins the past decade, double Oklahoma City's win total last season.

"It's tough to judge with us," said Nick Collison. "We're a very talented team that could make a huge push. We're capable of it. With that being said, we're probably 25 games short from our record last year. That's a huge jump."

Phoenix won 48 games and didn't make it. Two years ago, Golden State won 50 and missed the playoffs.

But there are signs it might not take 45 wins in the Western Conference.

The East no longer is a doormat, winning the inter-conference series for the first time in a decade by beating up on the West's bottom feeders.

Houston, without Yao Ming and Ron Artest, is in for a big fall.

The Phoenix Suns' front office contemplated rebuilding last spring. Shaq is gone. Steve Nash is still special but is age 35. Grant Hill is 37.

Amar'e Stoudemire has an eye injury on top of his history of a surgically repaired knee.

Robin Lopez, the projected starting center, might be sidelined into December.

What if the Suns struggle early? Does Phoenix revisit the rebuild-with-youth option and trade Stoudemire, who will be a free agent?

Seven teams in the West are viewed as playoff locks (Lakers, Spurs, Trail Blazers, Mavericks, Nuggets, Jazz and Hornets).

The two most vulnerable are the Jazz and Hornets, who can ill afford to have point guards Deron Williams or Chris Paul sidelined for an extended period.

Williams says his ankle still hurts. Utah might trade Carlos Boozer. New Orleans' owner George Shinn wants to shed payroll.

What if a 41-41 record is good enough? Can a young Thunder team improve that much after going 20-30 the final three-plus months?

"We're expecting to not get off to another bad start," Collison said. "As the season goes, anything can happen. It's hard to say we're going to be in the playoffs or not be in the playoffs. We do feel much better about our team. It's a process."

If a team surprises in the West, it's probably the Clippers or Warriors, not the Thunder .

But the West landscape could be changing. The Thunder probably isn't a viable playoff contender until 2010-11, but it might take fewer wins than you think.

READY OR NOT

→Ready: The No. 8 seed might be up for grabs. For a change, 40 or 41 wins might be enough because of Yao Ming's injury and Shaquille O'Neal's departure in Phoenix. Oklahoma City's record was 20-30 the final three-plus months. Project that winning percentage over a full season, and Oklahoma City would collect 33 wins. With a year's experience and some new additions, if everything falls right the Thunder has an outside shot of finishing near .500.

→Not: The win total for the Western Conference's No. 8 seed the past decade has been 48, 50, 45, 44, 45, 43, 44, 44, 47 and 44. To record that many wins, the Thunder would have to come close to doubling its win total, an enormous challenge for a team with a roster full of players age 26 or younger.